SYDNEY, Australia – August 9, 2011 — Cisco predicts that the number of network-connected devices in Australia will be more than 84 million, more than triple Australia's population, by 2015. In the Australia-specific projections from its fifth annual global Cisco® Visual Networking Index Forecast (2010-2015) released today, the company also said the total amount of Australia's consumer and business Internet (IP) traffic will grow six-fold by 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41%.
When coupled with the Government's National Digital Economy Strategy, the results reveal that Australia is on the verge of a substantial evolution in how new jobs, businesses and even new public services will be enabled by a broadband-enabled economy. According to Cisco, the four key factors that will drive this evolution in Australia are:
1. More Internet users:By 2015, there will be 20 million Internet users – up from 14 million in 2010. The average Internet user will generate 19.5 gigabytes of Internet traffic per month in 2015, up 562% from 3.0 gigabytes per month in 2010, a CAGR of 46%.
2. Higher demand for broadband: IP traffic will reach 22 gigabytes per capita in Australia in 2015, up from 4 gigabytes per capita in Australia in 2010. In 2015, IP traffic will be the equivalent of 2 billion DVDs per year, 128 million DVDs per month or 175,885 DVDs per hour.
3. An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, connected appliances and other smart devices is driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2015, in Australia there will be 3.6 networked devices per capita, up from 2.1 per capita in 2010.
4. More video: By 2015, 15 billion minutes (27,716 years) of video content will traverse the Internet every month. Internet video traffic will be 81% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2015, up from 50% in 2010.
Today's research reinforces the need for Australian businesses to prepare for the next wave of productivity, collaboration and the stimulation of innovation that can be gained from the forthcoming NBN, one of the key platforms for Australia's economic future. The increase in Internet video traffic highlights that Australians are seeking more visual, virtual and mobile Internet experiences. This has implications for key industry sectors such as education, retail and entertainment and how they may consider creating more interactive, engaging learning, shopping and social experiences for Australians.
The research also predicts that Australian Internet-video-to-television traffic will be 14% of consumer Internet video traffic by 2015, up from 7% in 2010. This projection will be of interest to Australian employers who may choose to offer Web-based video conferencing to teleworkers as a means of maintaining the same collaborative work culture and productivity levels while saving the employee from commuting during peak hours and reducing transport congestion.
Today Glenn Archer, the 1st Assistant Secretary in the Policy and Planning Division of the Australian Government Information Management Office (AGIMO); Jim Hassell, NBN Co's Head of Product Development and Sales; and Peter Westerveld the CIO of Minter Ellison Lawyers joined a discussion on the important role that the digital economy will play in Australia's future prosperity, how consumers will experience and interact with the digital economy and how businesses can capture the opportunities it presents at the Trans-Tasman Business Circle.
Glenn Archer, First Assistant Secretary, Policy and Planning of AGIMO, said, "Over the last decade, the Internet has become a major force in shaping how government administers its responsibilities, and how it engages with and delivers services to citizens, businesses and communities. At the national level, the Internet already delivers a significant contribution to Australia's productivity and all indications are that this will continue to grow rapidly – particularly as cloud-based services become embedded in the operations of business and government. Infrastructure such as the National Broadband Network, not only underpins productivity benefits for government operations, it enables better service delivery, and provides options for a whole new range of policies approaches to support the needs of citizens in the future."
Jim Hassell, Head of Product Development and Sales of NBN Co, said, "I welcome this research from Cisco which indicates important trends in data usage and why the NBN is needed to keep pace with growing demand. We are only at the beginning of developments in areas such as internet TV and video conferencing which will drive increased data usage."
Peter Westerveld, CIO of Minter Ellison, said, "Fast, ubiquitous network capacity everywhere is essential infrastructure for business. For example, the barriers that once protected your clients from being contacted by competitors are falling away in today's increasingly online social environment. That's why ensuring you have strong and close relationships with clients is becoming even more important. The immersive use of video-supported collaboration technologies gives you an important tool to connect in a meaningful and personal way with clients, suppliers and, of course, other staff, wherever they might be located."
Les Williamson, vice president of Cisco Asia Pacific Area, said, "Cisco has long touted technologies that transform the way we do business by helping businesses overcome the barriers of time and distance. Together with the NBN and other broadband build-outs in the private sector, and a world that is growing more interconnected, there are unlimited opportunities for Australian businesses. Beyond taking advantage of the business imperative of being faster, better and cheaper, businesses need to plan how they can extend this locally, regionally and globally to increase productivity, innovation and competitive advantage."
Overview of Cisco VNI Methodology and Other Resources
- The annual Cisco VNI Forecast was developed to estimate global Internet Protocol traffic growth and trends. Widely used by service providers, regulators, and industry influencers alike, the Cisco VNI Forecast is based on in-depth analysis and modeling of traffic, usage and device data from independent analyst forecasts. Cisco validates its forecast, inputs and methodology with actual traffic data provided voluntarily by global service providers and consumers alike.
- View the Australian Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast and the Global Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast.
- Cisco VNI Forecast and Methodology, 2010 – 2015 White Paper provides the full detailed findings of the study. There is also a version that explores the implications of global IP traffic growth for service providers.
- The annual study, which began in 2008, has historically been accurate to within a 3% to 5% deviation — usually on the conservative side. For a quick look at VNI's 5-year anniversary and some of its earliest projections and the outcome please contact Cisco ANZ PR Linda Horiuchi (email@example.com).
- To help customers learn more and visualize IP traffic growth drivers and trends, Cisco VNI Forecast can provide customized views relevant to customer needs.
— The Cisco VNI Forecast widget provides customized views of the growth of various network traffic types around the globe.
— The new Cisco VNI Forecast Highlights Tool provides key forecast predictions in short sound bites that can be chosen on a global, regional or country level (these include device, traffic and network speed projections).
— Download free Cisco VNI resources such as a free application for select iPhone and Blackberry models that tests your cellular or Wi-Fi connection speed. You can compare your data against other users and share your results.
- The Cisco VNI Forecast Infographic provides a downloadable image available for use in blogs and social media.
- For answers to frequently asked questions check out the Cisco VNI Forecast FAQs.
Cisco welcomes press, analysts, bloggers, service providers, regulators and other interested parties to use and reference our research with proper attribution, such as "Source: Cisco VNI."
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